SFM Observer- September 2025

Glenn Sweeney |

SFM OBSERVER

September 2025 Recap

A CONCISE REVIEW OF THE MONTH IN THE INVESTMENT MARKETS

Issued: October 6, 2025

 

The Dow closed the month of September at 46,210, gaining 666 points or 1.5% for the month. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point—the first rate cut since 2020—as economic data continued to show slowing growth and softer job creation. Consumer confidence weakened, and several major employers announced hiring freezes. Despite the soft data, equity markets continued to climb on optimism that easier monetary policy will sustain the expansion into 2026.

Some interesting events from the month just passed:

  • The Federal Reserve’s September meeting brought the long-anticipated rate cut of 0.25%, citing cooling inflation and a slower labor market. Chairman Powell emphasized that additional cuts will depend on data, but markets are expecting at least one more reduction before year-end.
  • The U.S. labor market showed new signs of fatigue. ADP reported that private payrolls declined by 32,000 in September—the first monthly drop in more than a year. Job seekers are finding positions more slowly, and wage growth has moderated.
  • Technology shares continued to lead, driven by artificial intelligence developments. Nvidia and Intel announced a multibillion-dollar partnership to accelerate AI chip development, pushing both stocks—and the Nasdaq—higher. Nvidia now commands a market capitalization near $4.5 trillion, further cementing its dominance.
  • Oil prices drifted lower as OPEC maintained elevated output levels despite weaker global demand forecasts. West Texas Intermediate crude ended the month near $69 per barrel, down roughly 10% from its August average.
  • The threat of a federal government shutdown weighed on sentiment early in the month but had limited market impact. Lawmakers extended funding temporarily, but uncertainty remains heading into October and in fact the shutdown occurred.
  • Corporate buybacks remain robust, with total repurchases on pace to exceed $1 trillion this year. Apple, Microsoft, and JPMorgan Chase have all announced expanded programs, continuing the trend of using excess cash to support share prices rather than increasing dividends.
  • Gold continues to rally with the precious metal up over 40% year to date.  The level of uncertainty and geopolitical angst is propelling the metal to all time highs.

Thank you for reading this issue of the SFM OBSERVER. If you have any comments or questions, please send us a reply. If you have a friend or associate who might be interested in the SFM OBSERVER, feel free to forward this email.

 

Until next month,

 

Glenn Sweeney CFA